Each settled market below shows the probability the desk published, the market's own price at the same read, and the official NWS climate-report outcome. The pipeline writes this page, not the marketing department — it can get worse as easily as better.
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Every chart below is computed live from the settled ledger — the desk's published probabilities scored against official NWS climate reports, and head-to-head with the market's price on the same contracts. Brier score is squared error on probabilities: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is coin-flip guessing, lower is better. Each chart carries its numbers in the table underneath it.
One row per settled contract: the desk's prediction of record (what the morning brief actually said), the market price captured with it, and how the NWS settled it. Filter by city — promotion out of the provisional tier is earned per city, so that's the unit that matters.
Past daily briefs, word for word as they shipped. Each one unlocks here 24 hours after publication — after every market it covers has settled — so the archive is proof while the live brief stays with members.