The Gap Desk
The whale finder · Polymarket temperature ladders · last thirty days

Who is making money on the weather ladders, from their own fills.

Every fill of every temperature market on Polymarket over the window, grouped by wallet, resolved against the venue's own result and scored the way the whale piece scores: first-in first-out, what is still held settles at a dollar or nothing. Each wallet is then profiled from its fills alone, when it buys against the market's day, how long it holds, which side and which brackets. And for the wallets that rank, the paper mirror: what a copier who saw each fill on the public feed and lifted the next ask would have made. No order is placed anywhere; this is a measurement.

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The wallets that rank

Wallets with at least twenty buys and five hundred dollars paid over the window, by gross profit on the buys that have settled. The address is the wallet's public identity on the chain; the name is the pseudonym Polymarket shows for it. Per share is gross, before the venue's fee, over the shares that settled.

#walletprofilebuysmarketssharespaidgrossper sharepaidmedian holdon the daylong NO

The profiles

A label from the fills alone. The thresholds are the whole rule; a wallet that fits none is "mixed", and one below the sample floor is "small sample" and does not rank.

observation bot80% or more of its dollars bought on the market's own day, and a median hold of an hour or less: it buys once the station has decided and sells at once.
tail seller70% or more of its dollars long NO, 60% or more of those on the ladder's tail brackets, and it holds six hours or more, or to the end.
longshot buyerA median entry of 20c or less, YES-equivalent, and 70% or more of its dollars long YES.
two-sidedBetween 35% and 65% of its dollars on each side over a hundred or more buys: a book, not a bet.

The paper mirror

For every settled buy of a ranked wallet, the copier sees the fill on the public feed, waits the lag, and pays the price of the next ask lifted on that outcome; no print within six hours is no fill. "Hold" keeps the position to resolution. "Exit" copies the wallet's sales too, at the next bid hit after each. Slip is the median cents between the wallet's price and the copier's. The wallet's own figure is on the same buys, so the two columns are the cost of arriving second.

walletlagbuysfilledown, per sharecopier, holdcopier, exitslip

the copier takes the wallet's full size at the next print, which flatters it: the print may have been smaller than the order it would have needed.

Where the numbers come from

agents/whale_finder.py lists every temperature event on Polymarket whose day falls in the window (Gamma), pulls every fill of every market (the public data API, takers and, in a second call, the resting orders that were filled), and scores each wallet with the same first-in first-out rule as the whale piece. It runs weekly inside the logger, writes the fills file to the private ledger bucket for re-scoring, and publishes the ranked rows here. The same file scored offline with --report reproduces this page. What it cannot see: a wallet that only rests orders in markets nobody took, and any trading outside the temperature ladders.