Market-implied vs data-implied probability

When the price and the forecast disagree, you should know first.

A Kalshi contract price is just a probability. Our agents watch those prices and the live National Weather Service data around the clock, and surface the gap between them — sourced, timestamped, and never a recommendation.

Live read · illustrative NYC daily high ≥ 90°F · today
38%
Market
61%
NWS data
0%50%100%
GAP +23 pts 12Z update raised the forecast high to 91°F; market hasn't caught up.
The opening

Prediction markets resolve on real events. The edge is always information.

The problem

The news that moves a weather market and the price of that market live in different tabs. The one independent tool that unified prediction-market data across platforms was bought by one of the platforms it covered — so traders lost their neutral read. Everyone is back to stitching it together by hand.

What the desk does

Autonomous agents own a beat each. They pull live forecasts and the live order book, compute an independent probability from the data, and flag only two things: what just moved and why, and where the price hasn't caught up to the data yet — with every figure linked to its source.


What you get

Start free. Founding seats unlock the real-time desk.

The Brief — free
$0
  • Daily weather-desk brief: what moved, and today's notable gaps
  • Delivered to your inbox and the public feed
  • Every number carries its source and timestamp
First 100 seats Founding — the live desk
$29 /mo · locked for life
  • Real-time gap alerts the moment the data and the price diverge
  • Live dashboard of every market the desk watches
  • New categories as they launch (Fed & CPI macro next)
  • Founding rate held as long as you stay
Why traders trust it

Built like a desk, not a tip line.

Sources on every claim

NWS ref · time → Kalshi snapshot · time

If a figure can't be traced to a fetched value, the desk drops it. No unsourced numbers, ever.

We never tell you what to bet

descriptive, not prescriptive

You get the divergence and the receipts. The position is always your call — that's the point.

You own your read

model-implied % vs market-implied %

An independent probability computed from the raw data, sitting next to the market's — so you see the gap yourself.

Founding members

Take one of the first 100 seats.

Drop your email for the free daily brief now and first claim on a founding seat when the live desk opens.

Saved — watch your inbox for the first brief.

For information only. Not financial, investment, or trading advice. Figures are model estimates and market snapshots shown with sources and timestamps; verify independently. Prediction-market trading carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction.