The games · Kalshi · live

The numbers, and the price.

Every open Kalshi game market, read once an hour. One tab is the tin-foil hat: both names run through the four gematria ciphers against the day's numbers, and whichever side the numbers favour. The other is the research desk: what the market is actually asking for each side, the probability that implies, and how much the two asks sum over one. They sit on the same row so you can hold one against the other. The desk publishes both and tells nobody what to do with either.

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What this is, and is not

The numbers. Each name Kalshi prints for a side is decoded in English Ordinal (A=1…Z=26), Full Reduction (digit-reduced), Reverse Ordinal (Z=1…A=26) and Reverse Reduction. A side scores when a value lands on one of the day's seven date numbers, on one of the decoding community's "hoax codes" (33, 111, 666 and the rest), when the name reads the same forwards and backwards, when its ordinal mirrors the opponent's reverse, or when its reduction runs three sixes. The side with the higher tally is the numbers side; a tie goes to the home side, which is the decoder's own rule and the reason this method tracks home advantage in the backtest. The scripted score is the date number nearest the sport's typical total, split by the tally gap. Over 22,990 games and 113 rules this was measured as noise, with the receipts on the symbols page. It is here because it is fun to look at next to the price.

The price. Ask and bid are Kalshi's, in cents, for the YES side of each team's market, read at the last pass. Implied home is the two asks normalised to sum to one; the overround is how far over one they summed before, which is what the book charges. Volume and open interest are Kalshi's. None of it is a forecast by the desk; it is the market's own number, published so it can be checked.

The record. When Kalshi settles a game the row settles with it. The numbers side is right when the side it favoured won. The price side is right when the side with the higher implied probability won, which a fair price should manage about as often as that probability says. Both tallies are on the record tab whichever way they fall. No order is placed anywhere and there is no order code; the source is agents/game_numbers.py and the table is games_schema.sql.