These terms govern your use of The Gap Desk — the website at kalshisignalsuniversal.com, the member desk, and the email briefs and alerts we send (together, the "Service"). By using the Service you agree to these terms. If you do not agree, do not use the Service.
1What the Service is
The Gap Desk is an information publication. It displays divergences between prices on prediction markets (such as Kalshi weather markets) and probabilities computed from public National Weather Service data, together with sources and timestamps, and maintains a public record of how published figures resolved. Our methodology is documented in full at /methodology.html.
2What the Service is not
Nothing on the Service is investment, financial, trading, or legal advice, and nothing is a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or refrain from any contract or position. The Gap Desk is descriptive, not prescriptive. We are not a broker, dealer, investment adviser, commodity trading advisor, or fiduciary, and we are not registered with the SEC, CFTC, or any other regulator. We do not execute trades, hold funds, manage accounts, or provide personalized recommendations of any kind.
All figures are model estimates and market snapshots as of the stated timestamps. Weather models are wrong regularly; markets move constantly; a published "gap" is a description of a disagreement between two numbers, not a prediction of profit. You are solely responsible for any decision you make, and you should verify all data independently before relying on it.
3Eligibility and your responsibilities
- You must be at least 18 years old (or the age of majority where you live) to use the Service.
- Prediction-market trading is regulated and may be restricted or unavailable in your jurisdiction. It is your responsibility to know and comply with the laws that apply to you.
- You are responsible for the accuracy of the email address you provide and for keeping your sign-in credentials private.
4Accounts and paid memberships
Some parts of the Service (the member desk, member briefs and alerts) require an account and a paid membership. Payments are processed by Stripe; we do not store your card details. Memberships renew automatically until cancelled. You may cancel at any time, effective at the end of the current billing period. Because the product is information delivered immediately, fees already paid are non-refundable except where required by law — if you believe something has gone wrong, email us and we will try to make it right.
We may change pricing or the contents of a membership tier prospectively with notice; changes never apply retroactively to a period you have already paid for.
5Acceptable use
- Don't resell, republish, scrape, or systematically redistribute the Service's content or data feeds without our written permission. Sharing an occasional excerpt with attribution is fine.
- Don't attempt to probe, disrupt, or gain unauthorized access to the Service, its infrastructure, or other members' data.
- Don't misrepresent the desk's output — including presenting our descriptive figures as advice or as endorsements of any trade.
6Third parties
The Gap Desk is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Kalshi, NOAA, or the National Weather Service. Market data is snapshotted from Kalshi's public API; weather data comes from public NWS/NOAA sources. Links to third-party sites (including kalshi.com) are provided for reference — their terms and availability are their own. We are not responsible for the accuracy or availability of third-party data, though we always show you where a figure came from.
7Availability and changes
The Service is provided on an "as is" and "as available" basis. Data pipelines, upstream sources, and email delivery can fail or lag; we do not guarantee that the Service will be uninterrupted, timely, or error-free, or that any particular signal, brief, or alert will be delivered. We may modify or discontinue features at any time.
8Disclaimer of warranties
To the fullest extent permitted by law, we disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy, and non-infringement. We do not warrant that any model estimate, market snapshot, or scoring figure is accurate or complete.
9Limitation of liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, The Gap Desk and its operator will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages, or for any trading losses, lost profits, or lost opportunities, arising out of or relating to your use of the Service — even if advised of the possibility. Our total aggregate liability for any claim relating to the Service is limited to the amount you paid us in the twelve months before the claim arose (or $50 if you paid nothing).
10Intellectual property
The Service's design, text, code, and compiled datasets are ours or our licensors'. Underlying government weather data is public. We grant you a personal, non-transferable, revocable license to use the Service for your own information purposes.
11Termination
We may suspend or terminate access for breach of these terms. You may stop using the Service, cancel your membership, or unsubscribe from emails at any time.
12Changes to these terms
We may update these terms from time to time. Material changes will be posted here with an updated effective date, and continued use of the Service after that date constitutes acceptance. If a change materially reduces what a paid membership includes, we will notify members by email first.
13Contact
Questions about these terms: duttenhefer25@gmail.com.
These terms are a plain-language agreement for an information publication. They are not a substitute for personalized legal advice.