A logger with no forecast records every open bracket of Kalshi's daily-high and daily-low ladders each hour, with the ask and the size resting at it. The rule scored here buys the bracket the first time its midpoint sits between 65 and 90c the day before, at the ask plus the fee, and holds to settlement. Nothing on this page is a recommendation; it is the record of a rule being tested.
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One trade per market. Settled days carry the result; today's entries are open until the NWS climate report lands tomorrow. Capacity is the size that was actually resting at the ask when the rule entered.
| Day | Entries | Settled | Wins | Win rate | Mean ask | Per contract | Cumulative, 1 ct each | At the ask | Within 2c | $ at the ask |
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| Market | Entered (UTC) | Mid | Ask | Size at ask | Within 2c | Result |
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In the history the same-day version made nothing. It stays on the page so the day-ahead line has something to be compared against.
| Day | Entries | Settled | Wins | Win rate | Mean ask | Per contract | Cumulative, 1 ct each |
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Three research loggers: Kalshi's temperature ladders (priced, no model), Polymarket's temperature ladders against the desk's number, and Kalshi's game winners against the sharp line.
| Day | Logger | Rows | Markets | Day-ahead rows | With size | Settled | Last read (UTC) |
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